February 24, 2025, marks three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The war has become the largest in Europe since the second world war, causing massive destruction to civilian infrastructure, significant loss of life on both sides, and the displacement of millions of Ukrainians. 

Since the invasion in February 2022, the world has watched events unfold from afar while struggling to separate truth from propaganda. Information from governments and military sources can be incomplete, distorted or falsified for tactical and political reasons. In an environment where the lines between truth and falsehood are increasingly blurred, solid, unbiased and independent evidence is crucial. 

As Norway’s National Data Centre for the Comprehensive Test-Ban-Treaty (CTBT), NORSAR’s primary responsibility is to monitor compliance with the nuclear test ban treaty. However, technical advancements have enabled NORSAR to monitor much more than earthquakes and nuclear tests. 

Seismic monitoring of explosions in Ukraine  

During the ongoing war in Ukraine, NORSAR has demonstrated for the first time how seismic data can be used as an objective tool for monitoring active conflict zones. Seismometers, which measure ground vibrations, and infrasound sensors which detect pressure waves in the atmosphere, can record the impact of violent explosions caused by bombs and missile strikes. By analysing data from seismic stations, NORSAR has been able to determine the timing, location, and scale of explosions occurring in Ukraine in near real-time. 

Map over the Kyiv-region of Ukraine. The triangles show seismic sensors and the blue dots show explosions that have been captured.

Documenting attacks and monitoring nuclear plant explosions 

NORSAR's seismic monitoring has provided crucial insights into military actions in Ukraine. On May 20, 2022, almost four hours before the mayor of Malyn publicly confirmed a missile attack, NORSAR’s automatic alert system had already detected three explosions near Malyn’s train station between 05:39 and 05:40 UTC. 

Similarly, when the Kakhovka Dam collapsed on June 6, 2023, causing widespread flooding and a humanitarian crisis, seismic and infrasound data revealed two explosions believed to have triggered its destruction – offering critical evidence amid conflicting reports. 

Beyond tracking military strikes, seismic data also plays a crucial role in assessing threats to critical infrastructure including the Ukrainian nuclear power plants. This monitoring capability is crucial for providing early warnings of incidents that could result in radioactive fallout, allowing Norwegian authorities to assess potential radiation hazards and respond effectively. 

In 2023, a team of scientists – led by NORSAR’s Head of Department for Test-Ban-Treaty Verification, Ben Dando – published a scientific article in Nature on conflict monitoring in Ukraine. They presented an extensive catalogue of explosions close to the Kyiv region, revealing far more explosions than what was publicly reported. Moreover, the data provides unique insights into the conflict dynamics of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  

This research, as featured in Nature, was widely reported by international media including an extensive feature in The New York Times. Several other media outlets, including Forbes, Der Spiegel, El Pais, Science et Avenir and New Scientist covered NORSAR’s research, highlighting its impact on conflict monitoring.  

Facsimile of NORSAR's coverage in international media. 

Expanding monitoring capabilities with fibre-optic sensing  

Fibre-optic sensing is a complementary technology that can further enhance monitoring capabilities. It transforms existing telecommunication cables into vast networks of virtual sensors capable of detecting signals through the air, ground or water. This flexibility makes it well suited for monitoring activity including sabotage operations or threats to critical infrastructure, both onshore and offshore.

Conflict monitoring, ceasefire verification and situational awareness 

Independent, data-driven conflict monitoring is more important than ever. Seismic and fibre-optic sensing technologies can play a crucial role not only during active conflicts but also in ceasefire verification and situational awareness. By providing objective, high-resolution data on explosions and other military actions, these methods ensure accurate reporting, facilitate humanitarian aid deployment, and support investigations into violations of international humanitarian law. 

In addition to monitoring explosions in Ukraine, NORSAR has collaborated with Nordic research partners, analysing the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline explosions in the Baltic Sea. Seismic analysis confirmed at least four separate blasts, providing key evidence that was later reported byThe Guardian. Such monitoring capabilities are essential for identifying threats to critical infrastructure, including nuclear power plants, energy grids, and subsea pipelines. 

By continuously advancing these technologies, NORSAR is setting a new standard for conflict monitoring, ensuring greater transparency, accountability, and security in times of crisis.