– That is when the world is truly at risk.

The warning comes from Kjølv Egeland, political scientist at NORSAR working on international security and multilateral diplomacy.

During this week’s CTBT meetings in Vienna, we speak with one of Norway’s leading experts on nuclear monitoring and international security. Egeland has followed the work surrounding the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty for many years – and believes the global security environment is beginning to resemble periods we thought were behind us.

Nuclear weapons are politically relevant again

– How would you describe the security situation we are in now?

– We are in a tense situation where nuclear weapons have become more relevant than they have been for many years. We see modernization, we see escalation, and we see rhetoric that increasingly resembles what one heard during the Cold War. This is a moment when we must avoid a new arms race at all costs.

Egeland points out that several states are now investing heavily in new systems – strategic missiles, hypersonic weapons and submarine capabilities.

– When the world’s most powerful countries rearm while diplomatic brakes are weakening, the risk of misunderstandings and misinterpretations increases. It is often not the weapons themselves that trigger escalation, but the uncertainty surrounding what the other side is doing.

Mistrust as fuel

– What makes this uncertainty so dangerous?

– It’s when countries don’t know what the other side is doing that they start acting out of fear. And that is the most unstable dynamic there is. We saw this clearly during the Cold War. Much of the arms buildup spiral was driven by suspicion, rumours and misinformation. Countries believed their adversaries had more weapons than they did – and responded by building even more themselves.

He believes we may now be approaching something similar.

– In a situation like this, false claims are extremely dangerous. If a country wrongly claims that a rival has carried out a nuclear test, it can be used as justification to do something in return. One single misstep by one actor can be enough to start a chain reaction that is difficult to stop.

Everything starts with the tests

– What needs to be done to prevent such mechanisms from taking hold?

– First and foremost, we need to know what is actually happening. In nuclear politics everything starts with the question: is someone testing new weapons or building new game-changing equipment in secret?

– Test explosions reveal intention, capability and level of ambition. If the world does not know whether someone has tested – or if doubt is created around it – the entire system is weakened.

Egeland also warns against letting information itself become a political weapon.

– Without reliable data it becomes very easy to use accusations as a political tool. Not only can you cast suspicion on an opponent – you can also use such claims to legitimize your own actions. That is precisely why verification is so crucial.

CTBT – the world’s most precise truth machine

– What makes the CTBT regime so important in today’s political climate?

– The CTBT is an invaluable tool. The global monitoring system is, in practice, the world’s truth machine when it comes to nuclear test explosions. It is the most precise, most comprehensive and most independent system we have for determining whether an explosive test has occurred or not.

He stresses that this is about more than technology.

– When Russia says one thing and the United States says another, or when major powers suggest that rivals are preparing or carrying out covert tests, the CTBT system can step in and cut through the noise. The data doesn’t lie. That makes it extremely difficult to inflate fabricated conflicts.

Norway’s role – a quiet powerhouse in nuclear monitoring

What does this mean for Norway?

– Norway plays a much bigger role than most people realize. NORSAR operates six stations in the global monitoring network, and several of them are among the most sensitive in the entire system. They are capable of detecting unusually small tremors far beyond Norway’s borders. With NORSAR’s monitoring stations in the high north, we can detect explosions of less than one ton of TNT equivalent. That is approximately the size of a large conventional bomb – or ten times smaller than the smallest nuclear weapon ever deployed.

In today’s geopolitical climate, this capability is critical.

– When some countries claim that others are conducting hidden nuclear tests, it is crucial that we can go back to the data. It is open for analysis, it can be independently verified and it provides an objective picture of reality. That removes much of the basis for misinformation and artificial escalation. Of course, there are instances where doubt remains even after analysing the data. The answer to this should be to improve the system, or to put in place further transparency measures, not to dismiss verification altogether.

Transparency is the best safeguard against escalation

– What is the most important principle going forward?

Egeland answers without hesitation.

– Transparency. Transparency is the best safeguard the world has against threat-inflation, escalation and spirals of insecurity. Policy must be crafted on the basis of what is actually going on in the world.

– This is a large part of what the CTBT gives us: insight, information and a shared reality. It is absolutely crucial in a time like this.

A troubled world – but still reasons for hope

– Do you still believe the world can avoid a new nuclear arms race?

– Yes, I do. Precisely because we have verification systems like this. They provide the tools we need to hold nuclear-armed states accountable. And they give us an opportunity to stop escalation before it begins. But we must use   – and we must defend them.

He adds:

– If the world loses faith in facts, we also lose the ability to prevent a new arms race. We cannot allow that.