Newspaper clipping from Aftenposten after the Test Ban Treaty was first adopted by the UN in 1996.

The purpose of the Test Ban Treaty was threefold. Firstly, the treaty was intended to help limit the humanitarian and environmental damage caused by nuclear tests. Secondly, it aimed to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons to new states. And thirdly, the treaty sought to make it more difficult for the established nuclear powers to develop new types of weapons, thereby facilitating détente and nuclear disarmament.

A well-functioning system

The test ban regime has largely been a success. Despite the Test Ban Treaty not yet having entered into force – as a group of key states have opposed ratifying the treaty and thus prevented its entry into force – the treaty establishes an important norm. In this century, only North Korea has conducted nuclear detonations – a total of six. By comparison, seven states conducted approximately 2,050 nuclear tests between 1945 and 1998.

The verification system of the Test Ban Treaty means that any state wishing to develop nuclear weapons cannot expect to carry out the final and decisive step in the process without being detected. The verification system also makes it difficult for actors with malicious intentions to accuse other countries falsely of test activities as a pretext for their own nuclear tests.

The international monitoring system of the Test Ban Treaty has furthermore facilitated continuous data collection, which in turn has been used for groundbreaking research and socially valuable technologies. Today, national data from the treaty’s global network is used for tsunami early warning, climate research, earthquake analysis, and investigations of probable attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine and the Baltic Sea.

New challenges

But the norm of test ban is now under pressure. Satellite images have revealed the expansion and modernisation of infrastructure linked to nuclear test sites in several major powers. Influential individuals have also called for new tests. In October, Russia withdrew its ratification of the Test Ban Treaty. For now, Russia has maintained its contribution to the international monitoring system, but the denunciation nevertheless sends a discouraging signal. The increasing great power rivalry between the US and China – which never took the step to ratification – may also potentially cause problems.

The Test Ban Treaty plays a key role in the effort to prevent arms races and further nuclear proliferation. In a more uncertain time, it is crucial that the Test Ban Treaty is preserved. The treaty’s monitoring system requires modernisation and stable funding. At the same time, it is essential to keep costs at a sustainable level. Norway and NORSAR continue to play central roles in this work.